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The news that a celestial body going by the name 2024 YR4 has a chance, however small, of hitting the earth has been making headlines. The earth exists in a solar system that is full of rocks and the chances of these rocks hitting the planet cannot be ignored.

Recently, amateur astronomers observed a new impact on Jupiter. The event occurred on August 29, 2023, at 1:45 a.m. Japan Standard Time. A flash was detected in Jupiter’s atmosphere, indicating a collision with a small celestial body, likely a comet or asteroid. This is not uncommon for Jupiter, as its massive gravitational pull often attracts such objects.

Here on earth, we have had recent asteroid activity such as the Tunguska event in 1908, where a massive explosion, believed to have been caused by an asteroid or a comet, occurred over the Tunguska region in Russia, flattening about 80 million trees over an area of 2,150 square kilometers (830 square miles) and the Chelyabinsk event in 2013, where an asteroid about 20 meters in diameter entered Earth’s atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia, injuring 1,500 people

Though not recent, it is worth mentioning the Chicxulub impact which happened some 65 million years ago, where an asteroid roughly 10 to 15 kilometers in diameter struck what is now the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. This event is believed to have caused the mass extinction of the dinosaurs.

Chances of 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 0.28% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. This probability has fluctuated as more observations have been made, and it is expected to decrease further as scientists refine their calculations.

As more observations came in over the weekend of the 22nd to the 23rd of February, 2025, NASA has now lowered those odds even further to an extremely slim 0.0039%, meaning NASA, at least, no longer considers 2024 YR4 to pose any threat to Earth. Space agencies have, by the 27th of February, 2025, confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat.

Potential Impact of 2024 YR4

If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the impact could be devastating. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet wide. Depending on its size and composition, it could either disintegrate in the atmosphere, causing an airburst similar to the Tunguska event, or create a crater and cause localized destruction. The impact could result in significant damage to structures, injuries, and potentially fatalities within the immediate vicinity.

Other Celestial Bodies

There are numerous other celestial bodies that pose potential threats to Earth. For example, asteroids like Apophis, which was once considered a significant threat, have been closely monitored. The probability of impact for these objects is continually assessed and updated as new data becomes available.

Global Strategy for Asteroid Defence

The global strategy for asteroid defence involves international collaboration and monitoring. Organizations like NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) work together to track and assess the risks posed by near-Earth objects (NEOs). NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully demonstrated the ability to alter an asteroid’s trajectory using kinetic impact technology.

Kenya’s Strategy for Asteroid Defence

Kenya does not have a specific strategy for asteroid defence. However, the Kenya Space Agency (KSA) has been making strides in advancing the country’s space capabilities. The KSA’s strategic plan focuses on enhancing national security, disaster management, and space situational awareness. While Kenya may not have a dedicated asteroid defence strategy, its efforts in space technology and international collaborations could contribute to global planetary defence initiatives.